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Months of residential housing supply, also known as inventory, is the measurement of how many months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current pace of home sales. For example, if there are 50 homes on the market and 10 homes selling each month, there is a 5-month supply of homes for sale.
Months of housing supply is a good indicator of whether the real estate market is favoring buyers or sellers. Typically, a market favoring sellers has less than 3 months of supply of homes and a market with more than 6 months of inventory indicates a favor to buyers, 3-6 months would be a balanced market.
September 2018 is the first month of over 2 months of inventory in Lane County this year.
Per Regional Multiple Listing Service, Lane County saw some cooling this September, most measures are still ahead for year to date. New listings (483) decreased 7.8% compared with last year in September 2017 (524) and 32.1% from last month in August 2018 (711).
Inventory increased to 2.4 months in September. Total market time remained steady at 36 days during the same period.
Comparing 2018 to 2017 through September of each year, the average sale price has increased 6.6% from $288,300 to $307,300. In the same comparison, the median sale price rose 8.1% from $260,000 to $281,000.
The inventory turnaround is concentrated in high-priced markets. Nationally, inventory of homes listed above $350,000 is up 5.7 percent, while inventory of homes below $200,000 is down 15.6 percent, and inventory of homes between $200,000 to $350,000 is virtually flat, slipping just 0.6 percent. In the 45 largest metros, prices are significantly higher in markets where inventory is rising — an average of $494,000 — compared to markets where inventory is still dropping — an average of $302,000. Additionally, inventories are up the most in markets that have experienced sustained price growth which is now starting to slow.
The U.S. median listing price remained at an all-time high of $299,000 in July, unchanged from June and 9 percent higher than last year. Homes sold in an average of 59 days, 5 days faster than last year. Overall, U.S. active housing inventory is not yet growing, but showed evidence of shifting gears, posting only a 4 percent decline year-over-year — significantly slower than the 8 percent average decline over the last 12 months. Furthermore, 16 major metros saw an increase in their yearly inventory levels.
Matt R. Powell and Elliott Wood are owners of Windermere Real Estate/Lane County with residential and commercial offices in Eugene, Florence and Vida Oregon.
